After the rise noticed through the pandemic, the worth of flats within the metropolis of São Paulo fell in 2022.
An evaluation of the 176,000 gross sales recorded by the town between January 2019 and Might this 12 months, based mostly on knowledge tabulated by Loft Dados, the center of the actual property startup Loft, reveals that the worth of the properties fell by 5.5%.
In inflation-adjusted figures, the brand new homeowners paid a median of R $ 4,598 per sq. meter within the first 5 months of 2022, in comparison with R $ 4,865 in the identical interval final 12 months.
In comparison with the earlier 12 months (R $ 4,915), the discount was 6.4%.
In comparison with 2021, the actual worth of the flats traded this 12 months was decrease within the 5 zones of the capital and in 80 of the 92 districts with gross sales carried out till Might.
Within the first 12 months of the Covid-19 pandemic, the situation was the other, with a rise within the sq. meter in 60 of the 93 administrative areas with actions recorded in the identical months.
When solely the neighborhoods with not less than 50 properties bought by Might of this 12 months had been chosen – to keep away from distortions on account of very small samples – there was a drop in costs in 69 of the 74 areas analyzed.
Amongst these, the best discount occurred in Jaraguá (-15.2%), the place the typical worth fell from R $ 3,314 final 12 months to R $ 2,811, in deflated values.
Then seem Capão Redondo, Cachoeirinha, Mandaqui and Artur Alvim, with variations between -12.9% and -11.6%.
The slowdown was additionally noticed in a few of the most prized areas of the town. In Moema, for instance, the discount was from R $ 7,889 to R $ 7,539 per sq. meter, equal to -4.4%.
Additionally included on this checklist are Consolação (-3.6%), Vila Mariana (-2.9%), Jardim Paulista (-2.6%) and Pinheiros (-2.3%).
See beneath for the variation by district:
For consultants, the info displays a slowdown after the housing increase noticed within the pandemic, in addition to modifications within the composition of provide and demand.
“We have seen this decline, a development in direction of barely decrease demand. This slowdown drives costs all the way down to attempt to fulfill the market,” says Rodger Campos, knowledge supervisor at Loft.
Campos classifies the habits of the sector as atypical after the arrival of Covid.
“Costs fell as a result of uncertainty inherent within the disaster. However quickly there was a really quick restoration, intently linked to asset safety, with the seek for a low-volatility asset. And likewise the seek for new forms of housing within the context of the pandemic, ”he recollects.
Demand at the moment was pushed by low inflation and the all-time low of the bottom rate of interest, the Selic, which hit 2% between August 2020 and March 2021.
“It was by far the perfect performing interval within the Brazilian market, with the biggest lending quantity within the historical past of actual property financing. An all-time file,” says Marcos Kahtalian, companion of Mind Intelligence Strategic Consulting.
As an alternative, he stresses that contractors have had spending will increase. The INCC (Market Development Value Index) recorded a rise of 13.8% within the final 12 months.
“With households at dwelling, with out journey, with restricted consumption and new wants, akin to dwelling workplace area, liquidity was very a lot directed in direction of the actual property market. These components, collectively, pushed costs up,” says Kahtalian.
Information from the town of Sao Paulo verify the increase within the sector. Between the second half of 2019 and the primary half of 2020, marked by the arrival of Covid, the whole variety of flats bought fell from 24,400 to 17,100. From then on, gross sales jumped to a median of 31,200 items over the subsequent three semesters.
The disaster has accentuated inequalities
Among the many neighborhoods with the best variety of items bought between July 2020 and December final 12 months, there are a few of these with the most costly sq. meters within the capital, akin to Itaim Bibi, Vila Mariana, Moema and Jardim Paulista.
“The disaster has the attribute of accentuating inequalities. Those that profited most from this increase, who had been effectively positioned to use the rate of interest, had been the folks with the best revenue, within the ten minimal wage bracket or plus, ”says economist Pedro Tenório, of DataZAP +, based mostly on Central Financial institution knowledge on the stability of the credit score portfolio.
He factors out that a few of the most prized areas of the town are additionally amongst these with the best focus of buildings and, consequently, of items on the market.
Relating to the change in costs noticed this 12 months, Tenório believes that there was a change within the composition of the provide, not an actual devaluation of the flats.
“In actuality, if we in contrast the identical property earlier than and after, it might not have misplaced worth. The information means that the decline within the common comes from a change of basket, with the seek for cheaper properties, and never from a lack of the basic worth of the property. property itself, “he explains.
With inflation peaking and Selic rising, presently at 13.25%, consultants predict a more in-depth to pre-pandemic end result by 2022.
“We see the impact of the erosion of the buying energy of inflation and a slowdown in demand, with declines in actual costs, on this context of macroeconomic conjuncture,” says Campos, of Loft.
“After the early vaccination [contra a Covid] and the restoration of sectors that make use of comparatively extra and pay much less, the composition of credit score has additionally modified once more, with a higher presence of the revenue bracket with between two and three minimal wages, ”provides Tenório, of DataZap +.
The value evaluation took under consideration the info of 176,089 flats bought within the metropolis of Sao Paulo and registered between January 2019 and Might of this 12 months, cataloged by the town corridor on the idea of the Declaration of Actual Property Transactions (DTI) and the gathering of ITBI (Imposta de Transmissão de Transmissão de Actual Property).
Solely operations with full switch of possession had been chosen. The values have been up to date from inflation as much as Might in accordance with the HICP (Broad Shopper Value Index).
The geographical distribution of the properties was calculated from the handle registered within the ITBI database and from the official limits of the districts, made obtainable by the Municipal City Planning Division.