Actual property costs in Ile-de-France: In Paris, the pattern remains to be barely downward

Here is what to recollect from the newest financial report from Notaries of Higher Paris on the Ile-de-France actual property market in Q1 2022.

A really dynamic first quarter for residence gross sales

The gross sales quantity of outdated homes in Ile-de-France for the primary three months of 2022 is steady (+1%) in comparison with the identical interval in 2021 and is 12% greater than the typical first quarter of the final decade.

Total, aside from some much less favorable developments noticed by some notaries earlier within the 12 months, the outlook for the approaching months stays optimistic. Moreover, after three distinctive years, a drop in exercise would solely carry a few return to normalcy.

Some regional contrasts emerged in Q1 2022, with a Parisian market confirming its month-to-month dynamism: virtually 9,000 gross sales had been signed there in Q1 2022, ie 8% greater than in Q1 2021 and particularly 13% greater than a median 1st quarter from 2012 to 2021.

In Q1 2022, residence gross sales consolidated in comparison with the identical interval in 2021 within the Interior Suburbs (+1%) and Outer Suburbs (+2%) and stay above the typical of the final decade (7% and +23% respectively) ).

In distinction, the house market was much less dynamic after a really uncommon interval. However the worth will increase verify the attractiveness of this market, which is hampered by the shortage of provide.

Fall in property costs in Paris: -1.2% in 1 12 months

Whereas the quantity of home gross sales remained dynamic, costs within the Ile-de-France hardly modified inside a 12 months within the 1st quarter of 2022, which was already noticed within the 4th quarter of 2021.

The worth enhance for flats within the metropolis middle is restricted to 2% in a single 12 months within the 1st quarter of 2022. In response to preliminary contract main indicators, this moderation will proceed, with annual will increase of lower than 1% anticipated in June and July 2022. Within the Higher Crown, annual worth will increase, which rose to 4.8% in Q1 2022, are anticipated to to drop again to round 4% by July.

In Paris, costs proceed to fall, just like what occurred between 2013 and 2015. The worth per m2 has fallen from €10,600 in This autumn 2021 to €10,520 in Q1 2022 and that is anticipated to proceed till July 2022 round €10,500 fluctuate.

Demand pressures on homes because the starting of the well being disaster has resulted in an annual worth enhance of 5.7% in Q1 2022, which is predicted to rise to 7.2% in Ile-de-France in July 2022. By the beginning of summer time, the home within the Grande Couronne would expertise the best worth will increase within the area.

Elevated uncertainties after the assorted shocks, however short-term resistance components

The primary quarter of 2022 was marked by the outbreak of struggle in Ukraine, a tragic battle, geographically shut and with numerous penalties. This main disaster exacerbated manufacturing bottlenecks and tensions over commodities, amplifying the looming inflationary shock.

Economies will due to this fact face a brand new and extreme check between the struggle and its aftermath, the resurgence of Covid in sure international locations, accelerating inflation and prospects of financial tightening, curbing entry to credit score and elevating rates of interest. All of those shocks have worsened the financial outlook and additional weakened companies and households.

Nonetheless, the property market in Ile-de-France continued to be resilient and remained buoyant, benefiting from robust demand and the ever-renewed confidence of consumers. In H1 2022, price hikes appear to have fairly inspired consumers to shut their buy rapidly as their solvency just isn’t at the moment critically affected. Notaries imagine this motion has continued as many households wish to signal earlier than the summer time.

As well as, the brand new financial state of affairs nonetheless harbors many uncertainties between rising rates of interest, that are nicely beneath inflation, and family incomes, that are at the moment largely deindexed. In the long term, the financial prospects seem much less safe. They might affect a market struggling to deal with its structural weaknesses (lack of renewal of the housing inventory and due to this fact lack of merchandise, tough housing decarbonization challenge).

However within the brief time period, actual property might proceed to face up to these crises by benefiting from family confidence and would stay greater than ever a protected haven, a bulwark in opposition to inflation and uncertainty.

A traditionally excessive property market and an annual worth enhance that’s nonetheless simply over 2%

Present residence gross sales quantity, up 11% on the earlier 12 months, is consolidating at a really excessive stage with 184,110 gross sales from Q2 2021 to Q1 2022. Annual inflation is capped at 2.5% within the area general, decrease than inflation (CPI +4.8% in March 2022).

The evolution of property costs in Ile-de-France se holds about 6-7%

Because the chart beneath reveals, the annual worth evolution of Parisian flats (inexperienced curve) is often greater than that of homes within the Ile-de-France area (purple curve). For the reason that finish of 2020, the pattern has reversed, the annual worth evolution of homes stays round 6-7%, whereas that of flats is progressively reducing.

Sluggish evolution in home costs (+0.9%) whereas gross sales quantity is near historic data

With 126,390 older flats bought in Ile-de-France in 12 months, exercise is dynamic and 13% greater than within the earlier 12 months. Within the 1st quarter of 2022, costs have hardly modified in a single 12 months (+0.9%), pushed by the capital.

The drop in Paris costs would nonetheless be offset by will increase within the suburbs

In response to preliminary contracts, home costs within the Ile-de-France ought to return to the extent of a 12 months in the past in July. In truth, this stagnation of costs masks geographic heterogeneity: in Paris, worth falls must be accentuated, within the interior suburbs worth modifications must be average, whereas within the outer suburbs worth will increase must be maintained.

Excessive exercise with additional strain on costs (+5.7% in a single 12 months)

With 57,720 outdated residence gross sales in Ile-de-France in 12 months, exercise is traditionally excessive and 9% greater than the earlier 12 months. The annual worth enhance slows down barely (-1 level) in comparison with This autumn 2021, however the worth enhance remains to be above 5% from Q1 2021 to Q1 2022.

Property costs ought to choose up once more within the coming months, rising by greater than 7% in Ile-de-France in a 12 months

Houses in Ile-de-France are set to expertise a brand new heatwave this summer time. Costs might enhance by virtually 4% from April to July, leading to an annual enhance of greater than 7% from July 2021 to July 2022.

The Paris market is returning to a excessive stage of gross sales whereas costs proceed to fall quarter after quarter (-1.2% in a single 12 months)

With an 18% enhance in gross sales in 12 months, the Parisian market is probably the most dynamic within the area, little question because of average promoting costs. The worth decline continued and was €10,520/m2 within the first quarter of 2022 (-1.2% in a single 12 months).

In Paris, costs are prone to stay round €10,500 per m2 within the coming months

In response to preliminary contracts, costs ought to hardly change within the coming months (+0.3% from April to July). The autumn in costs in Paris might enhance barely (-2.1% from July 2021 to July 2022).

In Paris costs at Sq. meters of flats in outdated buildings fluctuate between 8,030 and 17,400 euros, relying on the district

Within the first quarter of 2022, costs per m2 fluctuate between €8,030 (La Chapelle district within the 18th arrondissement) and €17,400 (Notre-Dame district within the 4th arrondissement).

The Notre-Dame neighborhood is 2.17 occasions costlier than the La Chapelle neighborhood (traditionally low ratio), separating them at €9,370/m2.

Costs per m2 vary from €8,830 within the nineteenth arrondissement to €13,820 within the sixth arrondissement (1.56 occasions costlier than the nineteenth, a traditionally low ratio). The fifteenth joins the 5 japanese outskirts beneath the €10,000 mark.

Downward pattern in costs in virtually all arrondissements

In response to the notaries of the better Paris space, 10 out of 17 arrondissements noticed a big fall in costs and solely within the fifth arrondissement did costs rise by greater than 1% in a single 12 months.

Excessive exercise for housing within the interior suburbs, significantly in Seine-Saint-Denis (+16% in comparison with the typical first quarter 2012-2021)

The housing market within the interior metropolis districts is dynamic (+1% in comparison with the primary quarter of 2021). Solely Val-de-Marne is declining (-5% in a single 12 months).

Within the interior suburbs, residence market exercise has declined, doubtless as a result of an absence of provide (-Eighth%)

That is the least dynamic market within the area, significantly within the Val-de-Marne. Gross sales volumes are down 8% in comparison with Q1 2021 and 4% in comparison with the typical Q1 over the previous decade.

An annual worth enhance of one other 2% within the interior suburbs

Within the first quarter of 2022, annual worth will increase ranged from 1.3% in Hauts-de-Seine to three.8% in Seine-Saint-Denis. In response to preliminary contracts, worth will increase might average within the coming months and be restricted to lower than 1% for the whole interior suburbs in July.

Slowdown in worth will increase originally of the 12 months (-0.7%)

Value stability from This autumn 2021 to Q1 2022 (-0.7%) resulted in a slowdown in annual worth will increase. In response to preliminary contracts, costs might rise extra sustainably within the coming months.

Secure gross sales at a really excessive stage for the Residences within the Grande Couronne (+23%)

The variety of flats bought within the Grande Couronne reached a file for a primary quarter. As well as, gross sales volumes elevated sharply in comparison with the typical first quarter of 2012-2021 (+23%).

Regardless of a lower in all departments (-6%), gross sales volumes stay very excessive

In Q1 2022, the variety of transactions fell by 6%, however that is in comparison with the wonderful Q1 2021.

A gentle annual worth enhance of round 5% as of 1ah quarter of 2022

In response to the preliminary agreements, the worth growth will diversify within the coming months. The worth enhance would decelerate in Yvelines and might be restricted to 1.5%, whereas in Seine-et-Marne it might enhance and method 7%.

Greatest surge within the area, costs soar from file to file (+7% in 1 12 months)

Costs elevated by 6% from Q1 2021 to Q1 2022. In response to preliminary contracts, costs might enhance by round 4% in 3 months, from April to July, and by greater than 7% in a 12 months. from July 2021 to July 2022.

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