new warmth wave and growing drought? 07/27/2022

After a very scorching month of July and a report drought, forecasts for August are usually not reassuring. A brand new warmth wave is looming and the dry anomaly seems to be combating again…

Threatening warmth wave from the start of August

After just a few days of near-seasonal temperatures, over the weekend of July thirtieth and thirty first, 2022, excessive stress will intensify in the direction of Central Europe over the close by Atlantic Ocean and over France early subsequent week, within the first days of August 2022. Below this imposing anticyclonic cell, the warmth will regularly accumulate and temperatures are getting hotter, picture of a warmth dome.

Continental scenario for Tuesday, August 2, 2022 – by way of ECMWF

On the airmass animation beneath, we are able to clearly see the gradual warming of the airmass over all of southern Europe and the Mediterranean basin, with this extremely popular air increasing over France and finally encompassing the entire nation in the course of subsequent week (circa third and 4th August 2022). Cooling would observe within the north of the nation (sea air) however this might not profit the southern areas the place the extremely popular air would persist by the primary week of August and presumably past. With air mass temperatures of over 20 °C at an altitude of 1,500 meters within the south of the nation, there’s a danger of a brand new warmth wave.

Air plenty at 850 hPa (approx. 1500 m) from Wednesday, July twenty seventh to Monday, August eighth, 2022 – by way of wxcharts.com

Already scorching within the south early subsequent week, temperatures might additionally rise within the north by midweek. Excessively scorching fashions throughout the nation have multiplied in the previous couple of hours, like this one below the American mannequin for Wednesday August 3, 2022, when counting greater than 35 ° C in three quarters of France with peaks of 40 ° C or much more within the Southwest thought-about! This card is to not be taken actually, however testifies to the potential presence…

US mannequin extrapolation for Wednesday, August 3, 2022 most temperatures – by way of wxcharts.com

Be that as it could, the southern areas are threatened with a brand new episode of a probably extended warmth wave beginning early subsequent week. Temperatures ought to exceed 35°C from Aquitaine to Provence as of Monday 1 August 2022 and will rise a number of levels over the next days, with nights turning into more and more delicate. The forecast for Toulouse exhibits no less than 5 days with 35°C or extra between August 1st and fifth. From the weekend of August sixth and seventh, the projections are blurring with fewer warmth eventualities but in addition extended embers eventualities.

Temperature modeling in Toulouse from Wednesday 27 July to Monday 8 August 2022 – by way of meteologix.com

It’s far too early in the meanwhile to outline the doable length, geographic extent and depth of this heatwave episode, however the areas of the southern half are most uncovered to extreme and extended warmth, whereas generally experiencing very excessive temperatures however extra variability within the supposed north.

What climate forecast for the remainder of August 2022?

temperatures

With regard to the temperatures, the forecasts for the month of August are clear. Along with the presumably scorching begin of the month simply talked about, the European mannequin anticipates the upkeep of extreme warmth throughout the second week of the month, however this anomaly would additionally persist into the second fortnight after which persist for the whole lot of August 2022!

Weekly thermal anomalies for August 2022 – European mannequin by way of ECMWF

On the American mannequin facet, the state of affairs is completely equivalent with excessively scorching temperatures throughout the first two weeks of the month, notably within the southern half the place readings could be scorching. The recent anomaly ought to subside barely within the second half of August whereas persisting throughout the world. No actually contemporary anomalies on the horizon…

Weekly thermal anomalies for August 2022 – American mannequin by way of tropicaltidbits.com

Given the consistency between the completely different eventualities, we anticipate a pronounced heat anomaly over France on this month of August 2022, in line with the anomaly noticed in July. South of the Loire, the temperature distinction from regular appears to be best, with an actual danger of a kind of extended warmth wave.

Projection of the August 2022 thermal anomaly – Climate cities

precipitation

When it comes to precipitation, the European mannequin predicts a very dry first half of August 2022, below the dominance of the large anticyclonic cell talked about firstly of the article. There could be virtually no precipitation. The dry anomaly seems to fade over the week of August 15-21 (presumably just a few thunderstorms?) earlier than returning in late August. Anyway, no moist anomaly is modeled…

Weekly precipitation anomalies for August 2022 – European mannequin by way of ECMWF

Its American counterpart follows roughly the identical trajectory, modeling the primary two weeks of August as overly dry throughout the nation. This dry anomaly would proceed into the second half of the month however could be much less pronounced. Notice, nonetheless, that the American mannequin, in contrast to the European mannequin, fashions moist anomalies in the direction of the Pyrenees and the Alps ensuing from doable storms.

Weekly precipitation anomalies for August 2022 – American mannequin by way of tropicaltidbits.com

Given the fashions above, it appears evident that the month of August 2022 will nonetheless present a pronounced drought anomaly over France, affecting most areas. Barely stormier climate might restrict this anomaly in the direction of the Alps and Pyrenees. Whereas the soils are already very dry by the top of July, if these forecasts come true, the drought may very well be catastrophic…

Projection of the precipitation anomaly in August 2022 – Climate cities

Needless to say multi-week forecasts are for data solely and shouldn’t be taken actually. They’re generally topic to alter and their reliability stays decrease than short-term forecasts.

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