The primary spherical of parliamentary elections was marked by a brand new abstention report in that election: 52.5%, in comparison with 51.3% in 2017 and 42.8% in 2012. If it reaches such a stage, the Abstention on a very powerful ingredient of the outcome.
Many “consultants” level out that after the presidential election, many citizens contemplate it a useless finish, so that they lose curiosity within the basic election. Little doubt, however we have now to go additional: if abstention is so excessive, it is usually and primarily as a result of the Nationwide Meeting as an establishment is deeply discredited within the minds of hundreds of thousands of voters. Past the Nationwide Meeting, it’s the complete political system that enormous sections of the inhabitants reject. So mass abstinence is an expression of a meals disaster of French capitalism. However this disaster of the regime, which has its roots within the deep disaster of capitalism itself, can solely worsen within the coming years.
In 2017, Macron received 24% of the presidential vote, then LREM 28.2% within the basic election. This time, LREM received 25.7% of the vote within the basic election, whereas Macron had received 27.8% on April 10. In different phrases, opposite to what occurred in 2017, between the presidential and parliamentary elections, LREM shouldn’t be advancing – quite the opposite, it’s retreating. That is unprecedented because the parliamentary elections instantly observe the presidential elections (2002). This truth as soon as once more underscores the good fragility of Macron’s place.
With greater than 26% of the votes , NUPES certified within the second spherical in practically 400 constituencies. Measured by the variety of seats, it ought to already do considerably higher than the FI, PS, Greens and PCF in 2017: At the moment, round 150 candidates from these events certified for the second spherical.
Can NUPES win the vast majority of seats subsequent Sunday? All polling institutes say no; they guarantee an (absolute or relative) majority within the LREM. Nonetheless, prior to now, the identical institutes have usually, and never solely barely, erred of their “seating projections”. These forecasts are primarily based on turnout and vote switch, that are all of the harder to foretell as they’ll fluctuate considerably from one constituency to a different. Nonetheless, it can’t be dominated out that the aim of beating Macron’s occasion will mobilize a sure variety of non-voters from the primary spherical and even RN voters for the NUPES. In what ratio? That is the entire query of who decides the result of the second spherical.
Given the NUPES, the LREM candidates have an obvious margin of favor amongst Republican and UDI voters, who obtain 11.3% of the vote (up from 18.8% in 2017). The “extrapolations” of the opinion analysis institutes are basically primarily based on this ingredient and on the belief of a secure and even larger abstention within the second poll. With the RN eradicated in most constituencies, lots of its constituents will abstain within the second spherical on the primary poll. The conduct of the RN voters subsequent Sunday will even be one of many figuring out components for the outcome. By the way, we word that LREM doesn’t declare a “Republican entrance towards the RN” when it’s towards the NUPES. For LREM, the “Republican entrance towards the RN” is just attention-grabbing when it really works to their benefit. It is a gigantic hypocrisy that underscores the error made by the “Republican entrance” in Macron’s favor within the second spherical of the presidential election.
With 18.7% of the votes, the RN improved its outcome considerably in comparison with June 2017 (13.2%). It appears sure that Marine Le Pen’s occasion will have the ability to kind a faction for the primary time since 1986 . If we add Eric Zemmour’s occasion’s 4.2%, the far proper will get 22.9% of the vote. In different phrases, the primary spherical of the parliamentary elections displays the rising political polarization that was already clearly manifested on April tenth.
Once more, given the pool of votes out there to LREM on the Republican aspect, NUPES can win Sunday provided that it manages to mobilize sufficient first-round abstentions and RN voters. But it surely’s removed from apparent. As we identified earlier than the primary spherical, NUPES – that’s, an alliance of the Fourth Worldwide with discredited events – can not arouse a lot enthusiasm amongst hundreds of thousands of employees, unemployed and pensioners, poor individuals who haven’t forgotten the betrayals of the “left”. in energy beneath Hollande, Jospin and Mitterrand. Many citizens are simply as skeptical about this “Union of the Left”, whose elements present blatant programmatic variations.
If the “Union der Linken” within the first spherical proves to be very efficient for qualifying within the second spherical, the results of the NUPES must be checked out slightly extra intently. This outcome have to be put into perspective by the very excessive stage of abstention. Numerous April 10 Mélenchon voters didn’t mobilize on Sunday (in all probability nearly half). We subsequently want to take a look at the electoral dynamics in variety of votes, that is a very powerful. Within the first spherical of the 2017 basic election, candidates from the FI, PS, PCF and Greens collected a complete of 5.77 million votes. This time, the candidates of the NUPES gather 5.83 million in keeping with the Inside Ministry and 6.1 million in keeping with the recalcitrant France. Even when we hold that final quantity, which might be extra correct, the very fact stays that “the Union of the Left” didn’t generate robust electoral dynamics by way of the variety of votes.
revolution requires the voting of the NUPES candidates who’ve certified for the second spherical. We should mobilize to defeat LREM – or failing that, to cut back as a lot as doable the burden of the appropriate and the acute proper within the Nationwide Meeting. Specifically, the election of numerous “rebellious” MPs can be an excellent factor – on one situation: that the management of the IF learns the teachings of the previous 5 years, i.e. swings to the left, radicalizes its program, turns the “motion” into one democratic occasion and at last connects the parliamentary opposition with mobilizations extra-parliamentaryon the street.
Macron aimed for an absolute majority within the Nationwide Meeting. At this level, there isn’t any assure in any respect that he’ll obtain it. Nonetheless, if he solely will get a relative majority, Macron will depend on Republican lawmakers to vote his insurance policies: they’ve the identical reactionary concepts and program. Macron has often even discovered help from some PS and Inexperienced MEPs. If LREM has solely a relative majority, Macron’s most important drawback is not going to be within the Nationwide Meeting subsequent Sunday; he will probably be on the streets, within the mobilizations of the youth and the working class, which is not going to fail to occur towards the background of inflation and counter-reforms. If the IF desires to play a job commensurate with its affect on this context, it should put all its weight into the event of the good social struggles.
 The Dwelling Workplace determine (25.66%) is clearly restrictive. The identical factor The world acknowledges him. The precise determine is over 26%.
 Be aware that in 1986 the FN (future RN) had a parliamentary group primarily based on a proportional illustration system. When it comes to the variety of votes, the FN was a lot weaker than the RN at the moment.