The outcomes of the second spherical of a parliamentary election as soon as once more deviate considerably from the “extrapolations” that the pollsters revealed within the run-up to the election. No one anticipated such a poor end result for LREM, which lacks an absolute majority of 43 seats. And with good purpose: no person anticipated the results of the RN getting into the Nationwide Meeting (89 seats). The 2 information are associated: towards the RN, the LREM candidates misplaced many extra duels than “anticipated”. However the NUPES additionally misplaced greater than anticipated towards the RN.
For LREM, the primary spherical of parliamentary elections was a transparent setback; the second is a defeat, even a debacle. Macron anticipated an absolute majority or not less than, a sufficiently sturdy relative majority to place his texts to a vote, drawing on a fraction of Republican lawmakers who’re divided on their perspective towards the federal government. However with 43 seats from absolutely the majority and solely 64 Republican or UDI MPs, issues look much more difficult for the top of state.
Within the coming days, negotiations will go properly from the Elysée to attempt to obtain some semblance of a parliamentary majority. Good promotions are supplied to one another. It stays to be seen which Republican deputies (particularly) will dare to embark on the galley of a authorities that will probably be structurally very weak – not solely within the Nationwide Meeting but additionally and above all within the mass of the inhabitants.
The abstention fee is 53.8%, plus 3.5% empty or invalid votes. Solely 42.7% of those that registered voted for one of many candidates within the race. In different phrases, if the federal government is within the minority within the Nationwide Meeting, it’s way more so among the many inhabitants, and particularly among the many lots of youth and employees. In flip, the federal government’s fragility within the Nationwide Meeting will encourage youth and employees to mobilize towards Macron’s reactionary insurance policies. From the perspective of the French bourgeoisie, which urgently wants drastic counter-reforms, that is very dangerous information. She can even put intense stress on the LREM and the Republicans to type some type of parliamentary majority. However the collapse of the Nationwide Meeting, Republicans’ thirst for revenge, and the deep in style dislike of Macron make the equation way more difficult than anticipated.
With 142 MEPs, the NUPES outcomes are within the “decrease grid” of the pollsters’ projections revealed final week. That is after all mirrored due to the first-round settlement between Vl. PS, the Greens and the PCF nonetheless in a robust improve within the variety of seats, particularly within the Vl. Vl. and down the inexperienced. From the attitude of the approaching struggles towards authorities insurance policies, the breakthrough of the Fourth Worldwide (84 seats) will be superb information. Nonetheless, given the 7.7 million votes collected by Jean-Luc Mélenchon on April tenth, the success of the NUPES have to be put into perspective.
As we now have underlined by analyzing their end result within the variety of votes, the NUPES didn’t generate electoral dynamics within the first poll. It’s clear that within the second it didn’t excite extra. We are going to analyze the small print of his outcomes later, particularly by sort of duels he was concerned in. However two necessary information are already obvious. First, regardless of appeals from the NUPES management, the non-voters of the primary spherical didn’t mobilize between the 2 rounds. Second, we mentioned it: the NUPES loses a major variety of their duels towards the RN.
revolution known as to vote for the NUPES, which was the one various to the suitable and the intense proper. However we had warned that this unification of the Fourth Worldwide with discredited events couldn’t encourage enthusiasm among the many most exploited and oppressed sections of the inhabitants. Moreover, we had confused that the so-called “Republican Entrance towards the RN” within the interval between the 2 rounds of the presidential election might solely strengthen the RN, not weaken it. The outcomes of the laws affirm this. The so-called “Republican Entrance” was additionally smashed on Sunday. Placing the “Republican Entrance” fallacy apart, nonetheless, the success of the RN confirms a robust development that’s not new: the polarization rising politics – left and To the suitable. If this right-wing polarization is expressed extra clearly within the parliamentary elections, it’s as a result of the NUPES composition was not the perfect automobile for a transparent left-wing polarization.
A serious cupboard reshuffle is on the agenda. However even earlier than it sees the sunshine of day, the subsequent authorities is already in disaster. As soon as once more, youth and employees will see this weak spot in energy as an encouragement to mobilize towards the reactionary insurance policies demanded by the bourgeoisie. On this context, the leaders of the left and of the commerce union motion – particularly these of the FI and the CGT – face an infinite accountability. Henceforth they have to put together nice social struggles, not solely to confront the reactionary insurance policies of the Macron authorities, but additionally to hasten its overthrow and substitute with a left-wing authorities with a program of break with the capitalist system. We’re conscious that this has not been the orientation of these accountable on the FI and the CGT Affiliation thus far. However that’s the orientation revolution will defend within the coming months, as a result of it’s the just one that responds to the target wants of youth and the labor motion towards the background of a deep financial, social and environmental disaster.